Yen lags as oil rebound lifts US yields, Aussie leads the majors

The yen was the weakest major late on Monday as oil reversed higher after US and Houthi attacks, pushing US Treasury yields back up. According to the investingLive Americas wrap, WTI crude rose $2.37 to $103.78 and the US 10-year yield climbed 4.2 basis points to 5.14%, with the Australian dollar leading and the yen lagging.

The headlines in this pack cover trading up to Monday's US close. Our earlier recap covered the euro's slide on French unrest and the soft Canadian CPI. What changed since then is the turn in oil and yields during the US afternoon.

What moved and why

The day started in risk-on mode. investingLive's morning preview said Asian markets may have been helped by President Trump's waiver of several Russia sanctions, which eased oil prices. It added that Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure kept a risk premium in place.

That calm did not last. investingLive reports that oil reversed course after US and Houthi attacks. Yields followed oil higher. The S&P 500 still rose 0.4% as the AI trade rebounded, and gold fell $25 to $4,139, according to the same wrap.

The dollar also gained against the euro. Investing.com reports the dollar firmed as violent French protests dragged on the euro, and a later Investing.com piece said the dollar gained as French turmoil weighed on the single currency. For background on how political stress feeds into a currency, see our sister site's explainer on French unrest and political risk for the euro.

The majors at the ECB fixing

The ECB reference rates below are from the fixing of 19 October, compared with the 16 October fixing. They are one official rate per day, not live quotes, and do not capture the late oil-driven moves.

USD/JPY fixed at 158.24, up from 158.02. Track it on the USD/JPY chart. AUD/USD was the strongest of the dollar pairs at the fixing, up 0.39% to 0.6986, in line with investingLive's note that the Aussie led (AUD/USD chart).

Central banks and data

Bank of Canada survey

The Bank of Canada's Q3 Business Outlook Survey indicator improved to -0.33 from -0.38, investingLive reports. The future sales balance jumped to +42 from +15. Only 6% of firms expect a recession in the next year, down from 17%. Consumers' five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.91% from 3.39%. That last figure sits awkwardly next to the softer September CPI, which came in at 3.1% against 3.2% expected.

US housing

The NAHB housing market index fell to 29 from 31, according to investingLive. It said 43% of builders cut prices in October, the highest share in the 2020-2026 period.

ECB

The ECB published a speech by Frank Elderson on climate and nature risks and economic resilience, and Christine Lagarde's IMFC statement. The pack gives no market reaction to either.

US politics

investingLive reports that Trump's approval fell to a record low of 31%, with Democrats leading 47% to 35% on the generic congressional ballot ahead of the November 3 midterms.

What to watch next

1. UK CPI on Wednesday. investingLive's data preview says headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.4% in September from 3.1%, with the BoE rate path and the autumn budget in focus.
2. US-Iran talks. investingLive cites Al-Arabiya as saying a breakthrough is expected this week. Any deal would matter for oil, which has driven yields and the yen.
3. French unrest. Investing.com links the euro's weakness to the protests in France.
4. US midterms on November 3.