Dollar slips from 18-month high in Asia as RBA minutes back prompt action

The dollar gave back part of Monday's rally in Asian trade on Tuesday, with the dollar index slipping below 102.50 after hitting its highest level since April 2025, FXStreet reports. The pause came as the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes made the case for prompt action on rates, while oil held above $92 and kept Fed hike bets alive.

What moved and why

Monday's dollar strength was broad. According to the investingLive Americas wrap, EUR/USD hit a 2026 low as oil rose. Liquidity was thin because US bond markets were shut for Columbus Day.

In early Asia, EUR/USD recovered to near 1.1165, FXStreet says, though it notes that fiscal and political instability in France may cap the upside. GBP/USD traded around 1.3220 after the BRC like-for-like retail sales release, per FXStreet. USD/CAD edged lower to around 1.4270 but stayed close to its highest level since April 2025, FXStreet reports.

Oil remains the backdrop. WTI traded around $92.05 after a deadly attack on Saudi Arabia's airport in Riyadh, according to FXStreet. FXStreet also links rising oil to inflation concerns and expectations of more Fed hikes, which pushed silver toward $60.00.

The majors: ECB fixings

The table shows the ECB reference rates from Monday, 12 October, against the previous fixing of Friday, 9 October. These are official daily fixings, not live quotes.

The peso was the weakest currency in the set, with USD/MXN up 1.06% over five fixings. Sterling firmed against the dollar while the euro fell, which fits the cross weakness covered in our sister site's explainer on how the EUR/GBP cross rate is calculated from ECB fixings. Charts: DXY and EUR/USD.

Central banks and data

RBA

The RBA's September minutes set out a case for rates to act promptly to keep inflation expectations anchored, FXStreet reports. The board raised the cash rate by a quarter point to 4.60% in September, investingLive notes. The Aussie had lost close to 0.40% on Monday and traded near 0.6950 after peaking below 0.7000, per FXStreet.

Japan

Japanese wholesale inflation missed forecasts at 6.8%, investingLive reports. It argues the pace is still high enough to keep a BOJ hike in play, and that the weak yen amplifies energy costs.

UK and China

UK retail sales beat forecasts, but fuel spending jumped by about 17%, investingLive says, giving the data a stagflationary edge. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7298 versus 6.7313, against a Reuters estimate of 6.6981, per FXStreet.

IMF

The IMF's base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027, with oil at $96 a barrel this year and $87 next, according to investingLive. It flags a $130 scenario as a risk to growth and inflation.

What to watch next

• US CPI on Wednesday, the key event of the week, per investingLive.
• Australia's September labour force data on Thursday, the next test for RBA expectations.
• US-Iran developments and Middle East supply risks for oil.
• French fiscal and political news, which FXStreet sees as a limit on euro gains.