Dollar mixed as AI selling overshadows oil drop on US midterm day

The dollar ended Monday's US session mixed rather than broadly weaker, as selling tied to AI stocks overwhelmed the relief from a sharp drop in oil, according to the investingLive Americas FX wrap. The euro gained while the yen eased, Investing.com reports, with the dollar slipping only slightly ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections.

What moved and why

Our last recap covered reports of a near US-Iran preliminary deal and the oil slide that followed. The late-session picture is more nuanced. investingLive's wrap says AI-related selling outweighed the oil plunge, and it notes that gold rose sharply, erasing some of last week's declines.

The result was a split dollar. In the ECB reference rates of 2 November, the dollar lost ground to the euro, the Swiss franc and the Mexican peso, but gained on the yen and on the Australian and New Zealand dollars. That pattern fits a market weighing lower oil against pressure on growth-linked assets. For background on how traders frame these swings, our sister site has an explainer on risk-on and risk-off moves using the US-Iran headlines.

The Canadian dollar shows the cross-currents clearly. Investing.com reports that the loonie slipped from a six-week high as the oil retreat offset a weaker US dollar.

The majors

ECB reference fixings from 2 November 2026, compared with the previous fixing on 30 October. These are official daily rates, not live quotes.

Over five fixings, the clearer trends are in the franc and the kiwi. USD/CHF is down 0.79% since 26 October, and NZD/USD is down 0.95% over the same span. On the yen, Investing.com carries a UBS view that still-negative Japanese real rates should continue to support USD/JPY. USD/JPY chart.

Data and central banks in the news

US data were mixed on Monday. According to investingLive:

• ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5 in October against a 54.5 estimate, with prices paid easing to 75.2 from 77.9.
• S&P Global final manufacturing PMI came in at 54.9, below the 56.0 preliminary reading, with new orders growth at its weakest since March.
• Construction spending fell 1.9% in September against a 0.3% estimate, though August was revised up to +2.0%.

In Canada, investingLive reports that the S&P Global manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 from 51.5. It was the first reading below 50 this year, with new orders in their steepest contraction in over a year.

On the central bank side, ECB Vice-President Boris Vujčić gave a speech on Europe's strengths in a fragmenting world on 2 November. Our sources carry no market reaction to it.

What to watch next

1. US midterm elections. investingLive notes Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to reach a majority, while Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Results could shape views on President Trump's agenda.
2. RBA decision. The investingLive Asia calendar for 3 November listed a rate hike as expected. Our sources do not yet confirm the outcome, so we will report it once it appears. AUD/USD chart.
3. US-Iran talks. investingLive cited a report that the coming hours would be decisive for a preliminary agreement. Oil, and with it the loonie and peso, remain sensitive to any confirmation.
4. Big Tech earnings. investingLive flagged Apple and Palantir results, relevant given that AI selling drove Monday's tone.

The next ECB fixing will give a fresh reference point for the majors after the vote.