Dollar logs fourth weekly gain as Fed pause bets lift the Aussie
The dollar logged a fourth weekly gain but trimmed it on Friday as Fed pause bets lifted the Aussie, while the Canadian dollar fell on a jobs miss.
Live chart · AUDUSD, DXY, EURUSD, USDCAD · TradingView
The dollar closed a fourth straight week of gains, according to Investing.com, but it gave back part of that advance late on Friday. FXStreet reports that US data confirmed expectations of a Federal Reserve hold in October, and that helped the Australian dollar end the week higher.
Since our last recap, the late-Friday story shifted from the euro and French debt to the commodity currencies. The Aussie led, and the Canadian dollar lost ground after a jobs miss.
What moved and why
FXStreet reports that AUD/USD gained 0.38% on Friday and 0.58% on the week, trading at 0.6983. The site says Fed pause bets offset hawkish rhetoric from officials. You can follow the pair on the AUD/USD chart.
The broader dollar lost momentum. FXStreet notes that the Dollar Index traded near 102.25 and has made a lower high in each session since Wednesday. It has not returned to its highest level since April 2025, set four sessions earlier. See the DXY chart.
In Canada, the investingLive Americas wrap says the Canadian dollar fell on a jobs miss, while US stocks rebounded despite weak sentiment.
Oil also eased. FXStreet reports that crude dropped after President Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300K tons of diesel, with 500K tons in November and 1 million tons after that.
The majors at the ECB fixing
The table shows the ECB reference rates of 9 October, compared with the 8 October fixing and the 2 October fixing. These are once-a-day fixings, not live quotes, so they do not capture the later Canadian dollar move reported by investingLive.
| Pair | Fixing 9 Oct | Change vs 8 Oct | Change vs 2 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1206 | +0.18% | -0.17% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3220 | +0.10% | +0.15% |
| USD/JPY | 158.25 | -0.02% | +0.37% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8311 | -0.32% | +0.54% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6981 | +0.54% | +0.61% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4226 | -0.25% | -0.10% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5614 | +0.44% | +0.03% |
| USD/MXN | 18.200 | +1.04% | -0.74% |
The Aussie and kiwi posted the largest gains against the dollar at the fixing. Our sister site explains why the two often move together in this guide to currency correlation using AUD and NZD. The Mexican peso was the outlier, weakening 1.04% against the dollar. The yuan firmed, with USD/CNY at 6.692 from 6.702.
Central banks and rate pricing
An investingLive summary of rate expectations shows how markets priced the main central banks after this week's events:
- Fed: 25 bps of hikes by year-end, with an 80% probability of no change at the next meeting.
- BoE: 35 bps by year-end, with an 86% probability of a hike at the next meeting.
- RBNZ: 33 bps by year-end, with a 59% probability of a hike at the next meeting.
- BoC: 21 bps by year-end, with a 74% probability of no change at the next meeting.
- ECB: 21 bps by year-end, with an 81% probability of no change at the next meeting.
In China, Commerzbank says the People's Bank of China rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued, according to FXStreet. The central bank linked export strength to industrial competitiveness rather than currency policy.
What to watch next
investingLive's week-ahead preview says the calendar starts quietly but gets busy from midweek:
- Wednesday: US CPI report, followed by Australian employment data that evening.
- Thursday: UK GDP.
- Thursday, 8:30 AM US time: US producer prices, retail sales, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, all released together.
investingLive also lists Monday market holiday arrangements for the US and Canada, so liquidity may be thin at the start of the week.
How we make this article: software gathers the market data and the news from the sources linked in the article, then cross-checks them. AI writes the text. People choose the sources, set the rules and run the process. Not investment advice.