Dollar edges up in fixings as JOLTS beat lands on US midterm day

The dollar gained ground against the euro, the Australian dollar and the yen in the 3 November ECB fixings, as US job openings and factory orders both beat forecasts. Doubts over a US-Iran deal and the US midterm vote kept the wider mood cautious.

Since our last recap, which covered the 2 November fixings, the news flow has turned to hard US data and to fresh uncertainty over Iran. Investing.com described the dollar as subdued as the midterms got underway, with the Aussie at a two-week low.

What moved and why

The US data surprised to the upside. According to investingLive, JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 million against an estimate of 7.100 million. The prior month was revised up to 7.19 million. Hires rose to 5.402 million and quits climbed to 3.4 million from 3.0 million.

Factory orders also beat. investingLive reports September orders rose 1.8% against 1.2% expected, after a prior gain of 0.1%. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%. Investing.com noted that Treasury yields edged up as Election Day met the JOLTS data and the Treasury's refunding.

Fixings as a reference point

The ECB reference rates for 3 November show the shift against the 2 November fixings:

• EUR/USD fixed at 1.1179, down 0.33% from 1.1216. It is still 0.26% higher than on 27 October.
• AUD/USD fixed at 0.6984, down 0.35%, the weakest of the last five fixings.
• USD/JPY fixed at 158.29, up 0.25%.
• USD/CNY fixed at 6.672, up 0.36%.
• USD/MXN fixed at 18.597, down 0.65%, so the peso firmed.
• GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and NZD/USD were close to unchanged.

These are once-a-day official fixings, not live quotes. A chart of EUR/USD shows the intraday path.

Iran and oil headlines

Oil has driven much of this week's risk mood. investingLive wrote that a US-Iran deal remains out of reach, saying markets are "pretty much back where we started" after Monday's oil slide. Its European news wrap said crude trimmed losses as the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island.

Later, investingLive noted more positive headlines on the talks. It also quoted Iran security chief Mohsen Rezaei saying the US response was "not convincing". Separately, investingLive reported that Trump comments on Israel aid put some downward pressure on oil. The outlet said it was skeptical of the market's reading of those remarks.

Central banks and data in the news

• Switzerland: October CPI rose 1.5% y/y against 1.3% expected and 1.0% prior, according to investingLive. Core held at 0.5%. investingLive said before the release that the data would not change anything for the SNB, which holds rates at 0.00%.
• UK: Investing.com said the pound edged up with a BoE hike in view. The GBP/USD fixing barely moved.
• Australia: Investing.com flagged the Aussie at a two-week low. The pack does not include the RBA outcome, so we do not report one here.

What to watch next

1. US midterm results. According to investingLive, Kalshi and Polymarket priced Democrats at 94 to 95% for the House and 78% for the Senate early on Tuesday.
2. US-Iran talks. Headlines have swung both ways, and oil has reacted sharply each time.
3. The Bank of England. Investing.com reports a hike is in view.
4. US Treasury refunding, which Investing.com tied to the move in yields.

For readers newer to event risk, our sister site explains how to use the economic calendar around the midterms.

FXcash Markets Desk