Dollar heads for best week since September as PPI keeps Fed hikes in play

The US dollar is on course for its biggest weekly gain since September, according to Investing.com, as hot inflation data kept Federal Reserve rate hike bets firm. US producer prices for October did little to change that picture, even though the headline rate came in a touch below forecasts.

Since our last update on the yen touching 160, the ECB reference rates for 13 November confirmed the move: USD/JPY fixed at exactly 160.00, and the dollar fixed higher against every major currency in the set.

US PPI keeps the Fed story intact

investingLive reports that October PPI rose 6.5% year on year, against 6.6% expected and 6.3% prior. Final demand rose 0.3% on the month versus 0.4% expected. Prices excluding food and energy rose 5.0% year on year and 0.3% on the month, both in line with forecasts.

The miss on headline was small. Investing.com reports that the Canadian dollar held near a one-month low as the producer inflation data kept Fed bets in place.

Bonds remain the pressure point. Investing.com says Treasury yields are logging their steepest weekly spikes since April 2025 on hawkish Fed signals. investingLive describes US bond market cracks resurfacing as higher-for-longer fears return. In its European session wrap, the same outlet notes that higher real yields and a stronger dollar weighed on gold as Trump put an Iran deal in jeopardy.

The yen at 160 and Tokyo's warnings

Investing.com reports the yen tested 160 again, drawing intervention threats. investingLive adds that Prime Minister Takaichi fired another verbal warning as USD/JPY flirted with the level. For newer traders, our sister site explains how verbal intervention, or jawboning, works.

The ECB fixing put USD/JPY at 160.00 on 13 November, up 0.19% from 159.70 on 12 November and up 1.05% from the 6 November fixing. Chart USD/JPY.

The fixings as a reference point

The 13 November ECB reference rates show a broad dollar bid:

• EUR/USD 1.1052, down 0.26% on the day and 1.01% since 6 November.
• GBP/USD 1.3227, down 0.22% on the day and 1.18% on the week.
• USD/CHF 0.8384, up 0.63%, the largest daily move among the majors, and up 2.38% since 6 November.
• AUD/USD 0.6785, down 0.52%. NZD/USD 0.5532, down 0.44%.
• USD/CAD 1.4258, up 0.06% on the day and 1.36% on the week.

One exception: USD/MXN fixed at 18.593, down 0.52%. For sterling, Investing.com reports the pound held steady as the hawkish Fed kept the dollar bid. Chart the dollar index.

Europe: final data, firm inflation

European data was mostly confirmation. investingLive reports that eurozone Q3 GDP was unchanged in the second estimate at 0.4% on the quarter and 1.3% on the year.

Inflation stays high. According to investingLive, French final HICP rose 3.7% year on year against 3.8% preliminary, with energy prices up 24.1% on the year. Spain's final CPI held at 4.9%. The outlet says both keep ECB hike expectations alive. German wholesale prices rose 8.8% on the year, the highest since February 2023, per investingLive.

On the central bank side, the ECB published a speech by Isabel Schnabel titled "Made in Europe".

What to watch next

• Fed pricing. investingLive's week-ahead preview says a December hike is fully priced, with a 12% chance of 50 basis points.
• Big corporate events. The same preview flags Nvidia earnings, the Anthropic IPO pricing and results from major US retailers reporting into a rate-hike cycle.
• Japan. Further official comments as USD/JPY trades around 160, given the intervention threats reported by Investing.com.
• Treasury yields. Whether the bond selloff that investingLive and Investing.com describe extends into next week.