Dollar hits 19-month high as Fed hike bets lift USD/JPY above 159

The dollar pushed further into the late US session on Wednesday and reached its highest level in more than 19 months, according to Investing.com. The driver was the same one that has dominated the week: rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes after hot US inflation data.

The move came even as risk appetite improved. investingLive's Americas wrap described the session as "dollar climbs as stocks rise and oil fades", with an AI rebound sending Nasdaq indices sharply higher and European stocks closing up. That points to a rates-driven dollar rather than a safe-haven bid.

The majors in the ECB fixings

The latest official reference rates are the ECB fixings of 11 November, compared with 10 November. These are once-a-day fixings, not live quotes, and the 12 November fixing is not yet in our data.

The dollar gained against every major in the fixing. The Swiss franc fell the most, with USD/CHF up 1.12%. Over five fixings, AUD/USD is down 2.22% and USD/CAD is up 2.15%. USD/JPY fixed at 159.23, above the 159 area that investingLive flagged earlier in the day when it warned that dollar bulls risk poking the intervention bear. For context on the size of the moves being priced, our sister site explains what a basis point is using the 50 bp Fed hike debate.

Charts: DXY and USD/JPY.

Central banks and data in the news

• Bank of England: BoE's Greene said it is appropriate to proactively tighten policy against wage risks, according to the investingLive Americas wrap. Sterling still fell 0.86% in the fixing as the dollar dominated.
• ECB: Investing.com reports a contrarian bet targeting a 2.5% ECB deposit rate through mid-March.
• Yen flows: Bank of America says retail yen selling is rising but is offset by foreign inflows, per Investing.com. Citi sees a yen strengthening risk if Japanese stocks correct further, Investing.com reports.

Geopolitics and late headlines

The Wall Street Journal reports that Vice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official, via investingLive. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf told Al Jazeera that peace is Iran's priority if Washington accepts its conditions, investingLive reports. Separately, Axios says the US has asked Russia for a new European security proposal as Ukraine talks regain momentum, according to investingLive.

After the US close, Nvidia shares fell sharply in after-hours trade following a New York Times report about CEO Jensen Huang, investingLive reports. That reversed the day's gains in the stock and could test the AI rebound that supported risk sentiment.

What to watch next

1. Japan PPI: investingLive's Asia calendar listed October producer prices, with consensus at +0.3% on the month and 6.5% on the year, down from 6.8%. The result is not in our data.
2. USD/JPY near 159: intervention risk remains the theme investingLive highlighted around that level.
3. Fed hike pricing: whether bets on a larger hike keep building after the bond market's Veterans Day closure.
4. US-Iran diplomacy: any confirmation of the reported Vance meeting.
5. Nvidia fallout: whether the after-hours drop spreads to broader risk appetite and the yen.